Monday, January 15, 2018

1st Widespread Snow Of The Winter

You have seen our forecasts throughout the past couple days evolve and I have a few thoughts and updates I want to share with you.

  • No matter how much snow you get, roads will be slick.  Whether it's 1'' or 3'', that does not matter.  In this situation, it only takes small amounts to cause issues.

  • Power outages should not be a factor.

  • I think it's very reasonable to increase the snowfall amounts for much of southern Arkansas and I think it's possible for amounts to exceed 4 or 5 inches, but not much more than that for most places.  

  • Central Arkansas will be on the northern fringe of the snowfall so I expect a significant gradient in snow amounts across the metro.   Again, it does not matter how much you get.  It takes very little for slick roads to develop.

  • The snow will stay on the ground for a couple days.  This means if your school closes Tuesday, there's a good chance it will close Wednesday too.  I don't make those decisions. 

  • Wind chill values will drop to -20° at times across northern Arkansas.  This is dangerously cold weather!  Wind chill values may drop well below zero across portions of central Arkansas too.  Remember: PEOPLE, PETS, AND PIPES.  Plants are already done.

STAY WITH CHANNEL 7 FOR THE NEWEST INFORMATION AND OUR SPECIAL EDITION OF DAYBREAK FROM 4-8AM TUESDAY.

Courtesy Pivotal weather.  The HRRR ,using the Kuchera algorithm, has amounts close to 5'' just south of the metro near Pine Bluff.  This is a model and not a forecast.  There should be a swath from SW to east central of 2-5''.  Look at the gradient across the metro.  Tough forecast.  Yes, those are lighter amounts north, but remember, it won't take much for slick roads so travel will be messy there too.
Our forecast as of 4PM Monday.  There's the swath of 2-4'' or more from Texarkana to Pine Bluff over to east central AR.  Again, I would not be surprised to see isolated higher amounts.

Saturday, January 13, 2018

Snow Way?!

Please forgive me.  I have very limited access to wifi and no cell signal whatsoever where I am right now.  Due to this, I have looked at only limited data.

I expect a weak disturbance to bring areas of flurries and light snow Sunday, especially to northern Arkansas.  While this will NOT be a storm, a few slick roads can be expected.

The bigger issue is the front and moisture late Monday and Tuesday.  This has more impact due to everyone returning to work and school after a long holiday weekend.

Looking at the data, it does not scream big snow potential, but I do think flakes fly and there could very well be some accumulation.  At this time, I do not believe it will reach winter storm warning criteria, but probably a winter weather advisory.

The focus will be central and southern Arkansas!  It does not take much to close schools and I think there's a good chance some will cancel Tuesday based upon two things:  the data I have seen and my past experience on what it takes to close schools.

Stay with Channel 7 for the newest information and I will hopefully have more later.

Thanks for your understanding,

Todd

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Possible Winter Weather

I continue to think this develops and intensifies east of the state, BUT there could be a few effects across portions of northern and eastern Arkansas Friday.  At this time, I don't expect this to be a winter storm.   However, I would not be surprised if northeastern areas of the state had a few slick roads Friday morning.  As I stated in a Facebook Live last night (Tuesday), if this develops further west, winter weather will be more likely.  However, most signs point towards intensification east of the state.  I have seen these things change rapidly so stay with Channel 7 for the newest information.  The surface temperature may struggle to even get down to 32° Friday morning across much of central Arkansas.  If it does, it won't last long.  Readings should jump above freezing quickly.

If you are traveling east of Arkansas into MS and TN and north of the state towards the Ohio River valley, expect winter storm conditions.  

We will have a return to cold this weekend with highs mainly in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s.  

The models differ on what will happen Monday or Tuesday.  The European is very consistent with a wave of low pressure bringing wintry weather to the state and the GFS has little to nothing.  Remember, the past is a guide to the future.  It hurts to say this, but the Euro hasn't been that great lately.  GFS hasn't been great either.  This is a very low confidence forecast for that reason and because it's in the long range.

The following images are the GFS from WeatherBell.com.

It's a cold rain late Thursday with a changeover across Oklahoma and FAR NW Arkansas.

From 6PM Thursday to midnight Friday.  There's a change to sleet and freezing rain across north central Arkansas.  It's still above freezing central.  There could be a changeover across the north to light snow before ending.

The change to sleet and snow continues into Friday at 6AM, but most of the precip will be east of the state at this time.  However, it will be possible for slick roads mainly eastern and northeastern Arkansas for a time Friday morning.  Then temperatures go above freezing.


1st Widespread Snow Of The Winter